报告题目：Life Expectancy at Risk: The Enduring Impact of El Niño on Human Mortality

日期：2024.6.24 15:00-16:00

地点：数学院235

报告人：朱文君

单位：Division of Banking and Finance, Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University (南洋理工大学南洋商学院金融系)

摘要：The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences global weather patterns, leading to extensive socioeconomic repercussions. Recent studies have highlighted the potential of anthropogenic changes to ENSO to disrupt the global economy. While the association between ENSO and human health—manifesting in epidemic outbreaks, floods, and food security—is well-documented, the specific impact of these anthropogenic modifications on human mortality improvements and life expectancy remains under-explored. This paper investigates the effects of El Niño events on human mortality improvements around the globe, emphasizing the identification of patterns, trends, and possible causal mechanisms. Our findings reveal that ENSO consistently affects mortality improvements, leading to a deceleration in life expectancy growth across Asia-Pacific countries. We attribute a loss of 0.2 and 0.4 years in life expectancy due to the 1997-98 and 1982-83 El Niño events, respectively. Under an emissions scenario aligning with current mitigation pledges, we project a 1.8-year reduction in life expectancy among the Asia-Pacific population due to increased ENSO amplitude and teleconnections from warming. However, these effects are influenced by stochastic variations in the sequence of El Niño and La Niña events. Our results underscore the critical impact of climate variability on mortality improvement and life expectancy growth, independent of warming, and highlight the potential for future losses driven by anthropogenic intensification of such variability. This is Joint work with Yanbin Xu, Benjamin P. Horton, & Dhrubajyoti Samanta.

作者简介：朱文君（博士，FSA，CERA），是新加坡南洋理工大学南洋商学院的终身副教授。她是银行与金融系的副系主任，以及南洋商学院保险风险与金融研究中心（IRFRC）副主任。朱文君于2015年在滑铁卢大学统计与精算科学系获得博士学位。她是美国精算学会James C. Hickman学者奖得主，并获得了2023年精算科学早期职业奖。她是《精算科学年鉴》(Annals of Actuarial Science)的副编辑，并在《管理科学》(Management Science)、《保险：数学与经济学》(Insurance: Mathematics and Economics)、《北美精算期刊》(North American Actuarial Journal)、《风险与保险杂志》(Journal of Risk and Insurance)、《ASTIN会刊》(ASTIN Bulletin)、《银行与金融杂志》(Journal of Banking & Finance)等顶级学术期刊上发表了多篇文章。

报告题目：Blended Insurance Scheme: A Synergistic Conventional-Index Insurance Mixture

日期：2024.6.24 16:00-17:00

地点：数学院235

作者：张劲弓

单位：Division of Banking and Finance, Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University (南洋理工大学南洋商学院金融系)

摘要：Conventional indemnity-based insurance (“conventional insurance”) and index-based insurance (“index insurance”) represent two primary insurance types, each harboring distinct advantages depending on specific circumstances. This paper proposes a novel blended insurance whose payout is a mixture of the two, to achieve enhanced risk mitigation and cost efficiency. We present the product design with a machine learning-based framework that employs a multi-output neural network (NN) model to determine both the triggering type and the index-based payout level. The proposed framework is then applied to an empirical case involving soybean production coverage in Iowa. Our results demonstrate this blended insurance could generally outperform both conventional and index insurance in enhancing policyholders’ utility.

作者简介：张劲弓是南洋理工大学南洋商学院的助理教授。他于2018年在加拿大滑铁卢大学获得精算科学博士学位。张劲弓是北美精算师协会SOA的会员（FSA），以及2015至2018年SOA的James C. Hickman学者。他的研究兴趣包括精算科学、风险管理和金融。他在包括Management Science, European Journal of Operational Research, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, ASTIN Bulletin, North American Actuarial Journal, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal等多个顶级学术期刊上发表了多篇文章。